News / 24th August 2023
Chocolate inflation: a rocky road
There is an expression – “don’t bite off more than you can chew”...unless it is chocolate! These wise words may not be so wise as the price of cocoa and sugar are set to soar.
Chocolate lovers be warned – the treasured indulgence is set to rise.
Manufacturers are struggling to match the costs of cocoa and sugar, which are likely to remain at high levels in the coming year.
As the cost of manufacturing rises, so do retail prices.
Rabobank has analysed data on the rising costs of cocoa and found trading prices have risen 27 per cent within the past year.
The rise is due to poor growing conditions within major production regions.
This includes places such as the Ivory Coast, where 40 per cent of global cocoa production is accounted for.
Associate analyst from Rabo-Research, Pia Piggott said the world was heading into its third year of rising chocolate costs.
“The manufacturers have had very wet conditions and flooding, which has been causing rotting and disease in the trees,” Mrs Piggott said.
She notes that poor production volumes are also the result of lower fertiliser available.
Chocolate may not be the only sweet in which prices are set to get sticky.
Sugar has become a common ingredient in most packaged foods.
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) said sugar is found in 60 per cent of products, meaning if the price of sugar rises, so does the cost of many other foods.
Rabobank has found prices of raw sugar has increased by 20 per cent within the last year.
The chance of a severe El Niño could have manufactures struggling to meet demand within the next few months.
“El Niño could possibly tip the scales back into global deficit, with more demand than supply,” Mrs Piggott said.
In the past year, there has been clear signs of inflation across supermarkets.
The chocolate manufactures have been careful to offset cost pressures, according to Rabobank.
“Inflation in the snack category is running at a high, double-digit rate,” Mrs Piggott said.
Rabobank has been watching consumer response to rising confectionary prices and has found a decrease in impulse buying, with consumers more likely to indulge at home – not on the go.
The rise in confectionary costs will likely not stop consumers from treating themselves.
It is clear we no longer live in Mayan times, where cocoa beans were the currency, worth more than gold – and it grew on trees!